For how long the existing water resources in Central Asian countries can maintain increasing water demand in the region and how can the water scarcity problem be solved in the near future
- Orifjon Ahmedjonov
- Dec 20, 2024
- 4 min read
This study proposal explores the future prospects of Central Asian countries amidst water scarcity challenges in the region.
Abstract
Central Asian countries are projected to face increasingly more challenges related to water scarcity, exacerbated by factors such as climate change, population growth, and inefficient water management practices. This paper aims to analyze upcoming water shortages in five sovereign states - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan - as well as possible ways to tackle this issue by considering socio-economic, environmental, and geopolitical perspectives to analyze the current status and project future scenarios of water availability and demand in the region. The study will employ multiple methods to assess the developing situation objectively, including real life observations of places where the case is evident and discussions with locals, interviews with policymakers, and direct research from the networks. Key terms: Central Asia, water scarcity, climate change, geopolitics, water management.
Introduction
The actual origin of the water deficiency in the region begins from the Soviet time, when Central Asian countries were members of the Soviet Union around half a century ago (Brauch, 2009, 21-42). During which the centrally planned Soviet government made unsuccessful decisions on the Federal level,with little input from the local community of the region, implementing large-scale irrigation projects and infrastructure developments to harness and distribute water resources for agricultural production, which was a key component of the planned economy (Karthe, 2017, 9). In particular, large-scale project such as the construction of the Karakum Canal (1930s) in Turkmenistan and the Fergana Valley (1950s) irrigation system in Uzbekistan, aimed to transform arid lands into fertile agricultural zones. Moscow prioritized agricultural development and industrialization in Central Asia overlooking environmental consequences of the developments (Berndtsson & Tussupova, 2020). Such repercussions include:depletion of water resources, salinization of soils, and degradation of ecosystems. And most notably, shrinkage of the Aral Sea, once one of the world's largest reservoirs of water. Consequently, after independence, the countries still could not fight this issue and Amu Darya and Syr Darya remaining transboundary rivers split by five countries using inter-republican agreements in practice (Allouche, 2020, 8-10). About future prediction of water provision in the region, it is worthy to include ongoing construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan, which will drain approximately 20% of the Amudaryo River making it difficult for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Literature Review
The water scarcity in Central Asia has been studied by many scholars around the world, especially topics such as population growth and failure in water management were the most illuminated ones. Previous studies have concluded that Central Asian countries will face serious freshwater threats in the near future. It is projected for 2030, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, water availability for consumption as well as for irrigation of fields is forecasted to exacerbate (Henarious & et al., 2018, 117-142). Additionally, recent studies have provided certain recommendations on the non-conflictual use of water in Central Asia (Peña-Ramos JA, 2021). So, many more studies conducted have confirmed the dynamic, constant, and inevitable freshwater scarcity by the year 2030, but still no study in my view, has postulated about concrete ways to control and stop the current trend from happening. Thus, possible ways for improving the situation in the region will be discussed, and then ultimately, some real and specific procedures will be provided in the research paper.
Methodology
The study will adopt a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative research methods to provide a thorough analysis of water sustainability in Central Asian countries. That is, an analysis of population growth trends and agricultural expansion rates will be considered for the quantitative aspect of the study. Furthermore, for the qualitative portion, numerous interviews with local water management experts, policymakers, and community leaders will be conducted to understand water usage in the region. Apart from that, various statistical models from the past 50 years will be analyzed to predict longevity of water availability of existing water resources in the region. Finally, this study will pay high attention to finding the causes of the destruction of the large water inland preserver Aral Sea, and learn comprehensively to maximally estimate the opportunities to return life to the region again.
References
1) Allouche, J. (2020). Nationalism, legitimacy and hegemony in transboundary water
interactions (Water Alternatives 13(2): 286-301 ed., Vol. 13). Institute of
Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK.
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2) Berndtsson, R., & Tussupova, K. (2020, 08 09). The Future of Water Management in Central
Asia. MDPI. Retrieved 11 04, 2019, from
file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/water-12-02241-2.pdf
3) Karthe, D. (2017). Water in Central Asia: an integrated assessment for science-based
management. Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.
4) Brauch, H. G. (2009). Introduction: Facing Global Environmental Change and
Sectorialization of Security. In Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and
Peace (Springer Berlin Heidelberg. ed., Vol. 4, pp. 21-42). Berlin, Heidelberg.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540- 68488-6_1
5) Xenarios, S., Shenhav, R., Abdullaev, I., Mastellari, A. (2018). Current and Future
Challenges of Water Security in Central Asia. In: Global Water Security. Water
Resources Development and Management. Springer, Singapore.
6) Peña-Ramos JA, Bagus P, Fursova D. Water Conflicts in Central Asia: Some
Recommendations on the Non-Conflictual Use of Water. Sustainability. 2021;
13(6):3479. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063479
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